A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
